Over the last few years I’ve spent a lot of time discussing
employment with various other market participants, commentators, reporters and
other assorted interested observers and, in my experience, one of the biggest
obstacles to productive exchange is an incomplete understanding of the various
measures of income & employment, what they attempt to estimate and how the
estimates are arrived at. I put together this short description, which I hope
to keep updating in the future, in an attempt to create a quick reference to
various measures of employment, wages and income both for myself and colleagues.
To avoid any confusion related to nomenclature, it’s
important to define some of the terms that I will use and how they relate to
each other. The labor force is the
portion of the population that is employed,
unemployed, or discouraged (1). Estimates of the
labor force, (un)employment levels, and demographic characteristics of the
labor force come from the Current Population
Survey (CPS), commonly referred to as the “household survey”, collected from
a sample of 60,000 households by the Bureau of Census for the Bureau of Labor
Statistics (BLS). Some key definitions are reproduced below:
Employed
persons consist of: persons who did any work for pay or profit during the
survey reference week; persons who did at least 15 hours of unpaid work in a
family-operated enterprise; and persons who were temporarily absent from their
regular jobs because of illness, vacation, bad weather, industrial dispute, or
various personal reasons.
Persons are classified as unemployed if they do not have a job,
have actively looked for work in the prior 4 weeks, and are currently available
for work. Persons who were not working and were waiting to be recalled to a job
from which they had been temporarily laid off are also included as unemployed.
Discouraged
workers are a subset of persons marginally attached to the labor force. The
marginally attached are those persons not in the labor force who want and are
available for work, and who have looked for a job sometime in the prior 12
months, but were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for
work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.
In addition to the household survey, the BLS also conducts
the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey,
commonly referred to as the “establishment survey” because it surveys
establishments (employers). It covers about 143,000 employers which, in
aggregate, employ over 588,000 persons (2). The establishment
survey includes any full- or part-time worker that was paid during the pay
period that includes the 12th of the month excludes self-employed
workers, farm workers, domestic workers and non-civilian government workers. In
addition to estimates of payroll employment, the establishment survey provides
estimates of hours worked and hourly earnings for the estimated 77.2 million
workers paid at hourly rates (3).
I will use the word “worker” to describe a member of the
labor force and the word “employee” for a person on an establishment’s payroll.
It is important to note that because an employed worker may be employed by zero
(e.g. in the case of self-employed) or more establishments, these are not
interchangeable. The household survey counts as “employed” workers who may or may not be on a payroll, while an employee is
a worker that is currently on a payroll. The sum of all the remuneration
employees receive for their work is compensation.
An estimate of Compensation of
Employees is released quarterly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) as
part of the National Income accounts. Compensation of employees is the sum of wages and salaries
and noncash
benefits (e.g. retirement plan contributions and employer-provided health
care plans) paid or provided to US residents by US or foreign employers. (4) This measure can
effectively be thought of as the “labor share” of income. It is important to
note that this measure excludes income from self-employment, including what is
commonly referred to as “1099 income,” non-employee compensation paid to
independent contractors, which is recorded as Proprietor’s Income.
Wage
& Salary Disbursals, a monthly estimate which is lagged by one month is
an almost perfect proxy for the wages & salaries portion of compensation of
employees. This measure represents the actual aggregate compensation that
employers paid both wage and salary employees and is a function of employment
levels, salaries, hours worked and the rate at which those hours were paid,
including overtime and paid time off. This measure deviates slightly from the
quarterly series in that it is based on disbursements while the quarterly
series is based on accruals.
The two most popular measures of employment are the
establishment survey’s non-farm payrolls
(NFP), an estimate for the number of jobs in the universe covered by the
establishment survey, and the employment
level estimate from the household survey. As previously mentioned, these
measures are not equivalent, but the closest measure to NFP in the household
survey is probably Employment
Level - Nonagriculture, Wage and Salary Workers. As can be seen clearly here, the
difference between the two is explained almost entirely by multiple jobholders.
Average Weekly
Hours and Average
Weekly of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees are measures of hours
worked (not scheduled). It is calculated by dividing the total weekly hours by
the number of employees paid for those hours for a cell and then calculating a
weighted average across industries (2).
Average Hourly
Earnings and Average
Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees are not measures of wage rates. They are aggregate
measures of the amounts paid to workers which may include distortions such as
overtime or holiday pay or fluctuations in the proportion of hours worked by
higher or lower waged workers. They are calculated by dividing the sum of the
payroll by the total hours worked for a cell and then calculating a weighted
average across industries. It’s important to note that these series cannot be used as a measure of wage
inflation as they do not control for overtime or the composition of the
workers. For example, in a rising wage environment that coincides with an
increase in low wage employees and an increasing number of hours worked by
those employees, average hourly earnings could fall even though a measure that controlled
for occupation would rise. Special bonuses and non-cash compensation are not
reflected in this measure.
Multiplying the estimates of average hourly earnings and
average weekly hours would result in an estimate of average weekly earnings,
the average gross weekly pay for an hourly position before any deductions (such
as payroll and income taxes, health plan deductions, etc.) which are available
on a monthly periodicity; however, a better measure of hourly earnings is
released quarterly based on the household survey. The Usual Weekly Earnings
of Wage and Salary Workers as part of the provides an estimate of quantile
boundaries of weekly earnings before taxes and other deductions (5) which control for various
demographic factors as well as weighted aggregates meant to be representative
of the population. In contrast to all
the previous data series mentioned, this release holds information as to the distribution of earnings and allows us
to see where changes in wages and employment are happening in the context of sex,
age, race, occupation,
full- or part-time status, and educational
attainment.
Together, these measures give us an idea of how money is
paid by employers, to how many people, as well as how that income is
distributed and the aggregate utilization of hourly workers. However, none of
these measures are a true measure of wage inflation, although the median of earnings
of full-time employees by occupation can be close. For a closer look at wage
inflation we have to look at the National
Compensation Survey (NCS).
The NCS is a quarterly
establishment-based survey that provides comprehensive measures of employer
costs for employee compensation, compensation trends, and the incidence of
employer-provided benefits among civilian workers, excluding federal,
quasi-federal workers, overseas, and self-employed workers (6). The two main
components of the NCS are the Employment Cost
Index (ECI) and Employer
Costs for Employee Compensation (ECEC). The ECI, one of the better measures
of compensation inflation, provides a “measure of the change in the cost of
labor independent of employment shifts amongst occupations and industry
categories” and its composition by occupational groups and industry
supersectors grouped into private sector or state & local employers. The
ECI tracks changes in compensation within establishment jobs, not individuals,
so an employee being promoted or changing jobs within the establishment would not
affect the index. While the ECI measures changes in per employee hour wages paid to employees and is presented
as an index level, the ECEC measures changes in the cost of per employee hour cost to employers and is presented in
dollar amounts.
Finally, the US Treasury provides
a daily record of assorted deposits and withdrawals in the Daily Treasury Statement (DTS)
which includes deposits for “Withheld Income and Employment Taxes,” the portion
of gross pay that employers withhold for income and FICA tax purposes. In contrast
to numbers from the previously mentioned releases, this is not an estimate and is not
revised. It is a true, real-time indicator of aggregate wages disbursed and can
be used as a proxy until Wage & Salary Disbursals data is ready later-on.
It is important to note that, because deposits for withholdings are not
necessarily made simultaneously with payroll (the Treasury allows for a short
lag between disbursal and deposit) and payroll periodicity varies between
establishments, short-term periods will be noisy and this data can’t be used to
approximate month-to-month changes in the seasonally-adjusted annual rate of disbursals
without significant adjustments. In particular, deposits tend to be elevated on
common “paydays” like Friday, Monday, and the turn of the month.
Works Cited
1. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Labor Force
Statistics. Current Population Survey. [Online] April 2015.
http://www.bls.gov/cps/lfcharacteristics.htm.
2. —. Technical Notes
for the Current Employment Statistics Survey. Current Employment
Statistics. [Online] April 2015. http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm.
3. —. Minimum wage
workers: Characteristics of minimum wage workers, 2014. Current Population
Survey. [Online] April 2015.
http://www.bls.gov/opub/reports/cps/characteristics-of-minimum-wage-workers-2014.pdf.
4. Bureau of
Economic Analysis. Methodology Papers. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [Online]
November 2014. http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/chapter10.pdf.
5. Bureau of Labor
Statistics. Usual Weekly Earnings Technical Note. Current Population
Survey. [Online] April 2015.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/wkyeng.tn.htm.
6. —. Handbook of
Methods, Chapter 8, National Compensation Measures. National Compensation
Survey. [Online] http://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/pdf/homch8.pdf.
The calculating the correct indicators of employment and wages will help to derive the optimal value. Such economic analysis is important for the population.
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