Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Labor: To the Moon!

A year ago I wrote about the coming sectoral re-balancing, with a focus on the imminent increase in the share of labor income at the expense of corporate profits due to an increase in labor bargaining power, declining labor slack, recovering aggregate demand, and increase in public sector employment as a result of improving tax receipts. Let's re-visit how this all panned out. Capital formation? Up as both Net Investment and capex increased.

The average YoY% increase in aggregate wage and salary disbursals was 4.3%, north of the 4% average increase for the first three quarters in nominal GDP.



Also showing robust growth, was Income & Employment Tax Withheld (the stuff withheld on your paycheck) which increased a total of 5.3% for the year as a whole, a clear indicator that more people earned more money.

And, for those who think we still have a lot of labor slack to work through, I present the following chart. At the current pace of job gains, we are a couple of months away from full employment. As the blue line falls below zero, labor bargaining power should really hit traction leading to the increase in real wages and inflation that will eventually lead to the next recession (which is still years away).


Far from being a drag on the labor force like it was last year, public sector employment has now become an impulse tighter, and it's growing at an accelerating rate, with a whole lot of room to run as those increasing tax receipts translate into new jobs.


The corporate sector will try to cut costs but Q1, 2 & 3's federal government tax receipts on corporate income for were 21.6%, 38.1%, and 33.9% higher than the previous year leading to a SAAR of over 500B in corporate income taxes paid. For calendar Q4 (fiscal 1Q15) the increase was even larger at 41.8% YoY (no seasonal adjustments). The effective tax rate of the corporate sector is going nowhere except up until legislation changes it or we get another recession. The marginal dollar of sales goes increasingly to the workers and the government. If you believe in micro theory, this is the aggregate result of firms increasing the quantity supplied until marginal net profit is close to zero.

As I said last year, the gap in quality between the mean and median household balance sheets (wealth skew) has probably peaked and is headed nowhere but down and the accumulated stock of corporate sector savings is being transferred to the household and public sectors. We are way past #PeakPiketty.



We are only getting started and labor is only going to get tighter from here until the next recession from a cyclical perspective. Additionally, as the growth in the millennial "echo boom" is increasingly digested into the labor force and retirement of the baby boomers progresses, it is likely that we will not see another large expansion of the workforce until millennial' kids enter it, and given low birth rates, that's not going to happen for another 2-3 decades. It's going to be a long, long ride UP for labor, and anyone betting on technological unemployment, secular stagnation, continuing rentierism or cost-push deflation is going to miss one hell of a p&l party. Oh, and for those worried about what CEOs get paid: It's going to be a lot harder to get large bonuses and raises for executives when net margins are declining in the midst of an expansion. Expect increasing pressure on executive compensation as traditional measures of profitability and efficiency decline.

And, just to clarify one more time: labor tightness, labor bargaining power, and wages are going nowhere except UP.  And wealth/income-skew (sometimes called "inequality") is going nowhere but down.

55 comments:

  1. Yeap, mountain results, looks like seasoning sales.

    Best regards
    Toby, data room virtual

    ReplyDelete
  2. These graphs show the economic state of some areas of employment. The increase in tax revenues can lead to the new jobs, which will be effective for the society.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Great post however , I was wanting to know if you could write a litte more on this subject? I’d be very thankful if you could elaborate a little bit further. Bless you!
    Pakistan Urdu News
    https://www.onlineindus.com/Urdu

    ReplyDelete
  4. Wales publishers are offering optimized, Best Publication Services in UK to boost the researcher and research communities, by providing accelerated and efficient services to fasten the publishing process and to give more opportunities for research on different disciplines.Wales publication research conferences give the researchers an international platform to discuss their scientific research Open Access Publishing UK work and their edges.We are different from other conferences because the community's member organizes our conferences.

    ReplyDelete
  5. The app has been a great success with the client’s customers and an innovation in their industry.
    San Francisco design firms

    ReplyDelete
  6. I loved this content. Thanks for creating it. I’m a big supporter of your stuff.
    bảng giá tiền ảo

    ReplyDelete
  7. Crypto.com is on a mission to accelerate the world’s transition to cryptocurrency. Through the Crypto.com Mobile App and Exchange, you can buy 150+ cryptocurrencies and stablecoins, such as Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Cardano (ADA), Solana (SOL) and etc.
    crypto.com login | crypto.com login | crypto.com exchange | crypto.com exchange

    ReplyDelete
  8. To the moon phrase has been trending for quite a long time now, mainly due to the support of Elon Musk for Dodge coins, I did a long research during the PhD research proposal writing service hunt and Cryptocurrency was on top of the topics list.

    ReplyDelete
  9. 토토사이트 Hey your collection is outstanding; I never see such a type of collection before. Thanks for sharing it with us. Keep it up.


    ReplyDelete
  10. 스포츠토토티비 Personally I think overjoyed I discovered the blogs.
    I would recommend my profile is important to me, I invite you to discuss this topic…


    ReplyDelete

  11. MetaMask allows its customers to access the wallet via its browser extension and mobile app. You can use the wallet on your mobile or computer or a separate device. Once you access the wallet, you remain logged in until you delete the app or extension from your device.
    metamask Login |
    metamask Wallet |
    metamask extension

    ReplyDelete
  12. Thanks for the great post you posted. I like the way you describe the unique content. The points you raise are valid and reasonable. I am a tech support expert telling you about.
    Crypto.com Exchange
    Crypto.com Login
    Pancake Swap
    Coinbase Down

    ReplyDelete
  13. Is Coinbase.com down for you right now? Submit your comments about Coinbase.com service status or report an issue below to let others know that they aren't the only ones having trouble.
    Coinbase down | Coinbase pro login | Coinbase login

    ReplyDelete
  14. A Phantom wallet is by far considered the best crypto wallet along with several others on the list. So, the sub-topics given below will let you have an insight on what makes this wallet shine from the rest, is it safe, and how to connect it with an exodus wallet.
    Phantom Wallet |
    Phantom Wallet |

    ReplyDelete
  15. Coinbase Pro is the companyís exchange that lets you set up advanced order types, such as limit orders. Those are fairly standard features for a cryptocurrency exchange.
    coinbase pro login

    ReplyDelete
  16. FTX Offers a Fairer, Faster Trading Environment. Perpetual Contracts. FTX users are located around the world in over 70 countries and regions. ftx exchange | Spookyswap | coinspot login | aol mail login |

    ReplyDelete
  17. Metamask extension : In order to use the blockchain, you need to install a mobile distributed application (dApp) browser. One of the most popular dApp browsers is known as Metamask.
    metamask extension | metamask sign in

    ReplyDelete
  18. MetaMask equips you with a key vault, secure login, token wallet, and token exchange—everything you need to manage your digital assets.
    metamask login |
    kraken login |
    crypto.com login

    ReplyDelete
  19. The phantom wallet has provided me with the best experience ever out of any crypto wallet and within any crypto ecosystem. Highly recommend. Very easy to manage multiple addresses.
    phantom wallet

    ReplyDelete
  20. Venmo has been successful in acquiring a global reputation for being 5the best electronic payment application that exists in the modern world. It offers users to move

    their money among different Venmo accounts and through peer-to-peer money transfers.
    Venmo Login |
    Venmo Login |
    Wells Fargo login |
    Wells Fargo login |

    ReplyDelete
  21. Visa gift vouchers make insightful gifts for everybody, as they can be utilized to make different buys wherever Visa is acknowledged, including on the web. Visa gift vouchers, dissimilar to other gift vouchers that are utilized distinctly at explicit stores. Nonetheless, before you utilize your Visa gift voucher online you need to ensure it's initiated and enrolled. What's more, this is just expected for online buys. In the event that you as of late gotten a Visa gift voucher and need to recover it for online buys, underneath are simple tasks on the best way to utilize your visa gift voucher on the web.
    tjmaxx gift card balance
    subway gift card balance
    dunkin donuts gift card
    How to use a visa gift card online
    Uber gift card
    lululemon gift card

    ReplyDelete
  22. To use the Uphold login services through its app, all you need to do is install the Uphold app on your device, launch the app, and sign up for the Uphold wallet services.
    uphold login

    ReplyDelete
  23. The wallet address external to Coinbase to send funds to enter the required amount of cryptocurrency you want to send in the Amount section, then press Continue.
    metamask wallet

    For many, MetaMask has become too expensive to use recently, but that is largely due to the surge in gas fees.
    metamask login

    ReplyDelete
  24. Download youtube videos in MP4 360p, 720p, 1080p HD for free. Fastest youtube to mp4 converter. Best Youtube to MP4 Downloader for PC, Mobile, and tablets Visit: mp3 converter | Mp4 Converter

    ReplyDelete
  25. MetaMask has been founded by Consensys in 2016. It is an Ethereum digital wallet that let you access decentralized applications including decentralized exchanges, gaming platforms, and staking Defi space. According to data, in October 2020, MetaMask had more than 1 million active users.

    metamask login |
    gemini login |
    metamask login

    ReplyDelete
  26. MetáMask Login is the stage that is a worldwide local area of engineers and fashioners which has been committed for making our globe an extraordinary spot with blockchain innovation.
    metamask login | metamask login | metamask login | metamask login

    ReplyDelete
  27. Moment we're going to bandy the process to useCrypto.com Login account on Apple bias. You can fluently pierce theCrypto.com account on your iOS bias by getting its mobile operation from the App Store.

    crypto.com login |
    crypto.com login |
    crypto.com login |
    gemini login |
    gemini login |
    gemini login

    ReplyDelete
  28. MetaMask is one of the best crypto exchanges in the trading world. Well if you are looking to start your trading and investment journey then this is the best suitable platform.
    metamask extension |
    metamask sign in |
    exodus wallet

    ReplyDelete
  29. Thanks for the great post you posted. I like the way you describe the unique content. The points you raise are valid and reasonable. I am a tech support expert telling you about.
    binance us login
    Ledger wallet
    Etoro Login

    ReplyDelete

  30. Cryptocurrencies with their worth in thousands and millions of dollars have definitely employed the need for using crypto wallet services.
    Crypto Wallet |

    Trezor Wallet a little better- it is an “easy-to-use” hardware wallet service that effectively satisfies your crypto-storing requirements and assures users of the ultimate safety for being an offline wallet device.
    Trezor Wallet |

    ReplyDelete

  31. A blockchain is a growing list of records, called blocks, that are linked together using cryptography.
    Exodus wallet |
    Coinbase wallet |
    Bitcoin wallet |
    Safemoon wallet |
    Blochain wallet |

    ReplyDelete


  32. Cryptocurrencies with their worth in thousands and millions of dollars have definitely employed the need for using crypto wallet services. Tons of crypto variants made their way to the lives of the exchange platforms and wallet services.
    MyEtherWallet |
    Coinbase wallet |
    Trust Wallet

    ReplyDelete
  33. Uphold login, then read the full article and follow all the steps. However, if after performing all the steps you’re not able to log in then visit the official website of Uphold for better assistance, and don’t forget to contact Uphold customer support team. uphold login |

    MetaMask is free of cost and a secure way to invest in cryptocurrency.MataMask operates on the concept of blockchain where you can uniquely record and transfer information into the network in a secure way. metamask login |

    metamask log in available on your web browser, but please make sure that you keep your backup phrase safe with you and never disclose this to anyone. then they will be able to access your wallet and steal all your data and once you lose it, then the MetaMask developers will not be able to recover it for you. metamask login

    ReplyDelete
  34. Kraken login was founded back in 2011 and talking about the performance then it is going good just after the launch of this platform. It is considered to be one of the

    longest-running crypto exchanges in the whole world .
    kraken login |

    Uphold login is a cloud-based digital platform that provides financial services to users worldwide. It offers 58 cryptocurrencies, 27 fiat services, and four types of

    precious metals and enable the users to securely convert, hold, move and transact in various sectors.
    uphold login

    ReplyDelete
  35. metamask log IS available on your web browser, but please make sure that you keep your backup phrase safe with you and never disclose this to anyone. If somehow someone knows your Backup phrase,then the MetaMask developers will not be able to recover it for you metamask login, The Phantom Wallet is a type of crypto wallets like MetaMask wallet, Coinbase wallet, Electrum wallet that is mainly used to store, send, receive, stake, and swap tokens on the Blockchain. Phantom wallet Phantom wallet is a perfect platform to navigate Solana blockchain from DeFi and NFTs. You can even earn rewards by playing free games, staking, swapping, and buying NFTs using Phantom wallet. Phantom wallet

    ReplyDelete
  36. I was perplexed as to who the moon professional book trailer video services was. I raised my eyes to the sky. The lovely moon is on the ground.

    ReplyDelete
  37. This is very educational content and written well for a change. It's nice to see that some people still understand how to write a quality post Visit: Uniswap Exchange

    ReplyDelete
  38. Dunkin' Donuts offers incredible tasting food and drinks that will keep you running all through your bustling day. Refuel with our incredible espresso, or begin your day with a good, fulfilling breakfast sandwich. There are presently more ways of fulfilling your craving than any other time, specially made only the manner in which you like. The Dunkin' Donuts Card is a helpful ordinary method for paying for all your DD top choices and is acknowledged at any taking part Dunkin' Donuts café. dunkin donuts gift card

    ReplyDelete
  39. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  40. Need to take your class online? Take Your Class Online offers best online class help! Just say Take My Classes Online for me. We offer do my online class help!

    ReplyDelete
  41. The easy, everyday way to pay for your favorite Dunkin’ products. The Dunkin' Gift Card makes a great gift or incentive for customers or employees.
    Dunkin' (formerly Dunkin' Donuts) offers great tasting food and beverages that will keep you running throughout your busy day. Refuel with our legendary coffee, or start your day with a hearty, satisfying breakfast sandwich. There are now more ways to satisfy your appetite than ever before, made to order just the way you like. The reloadable Dunkin' Gift Card is a convenient everyday way to pay for all your Dunkin’ favorites and is accepted at any participating Dunkin' restaurant.

    dunkin donuts gift card

    ReplyDelete
  42. Uphold login is, without a doubt, a most loved multi-asset trading platform. On this exchange, you can trade gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and more than 117 cryptocurrencies. This exchange gives you the option to buy and sell crypto tokens via more than 27 fiat currencies.
    uphold login | phantom wallet

    ReplyDelete

  43. This blog was very informative to everyone, thanks to share this post, and best of luck with your future article and posts Visit:
    Metamask Login /
    Kucoin Login /
    uphold Login /
    gemini login /
    Phantom wallet /
    kraken login /
    uniswap exchange /
    blockchain login /
    trezor wallet /

    ReplyDelete
  44. The detailed read above has been carefully created to help you understand the exclusive Cypto.com service that caters to all of your cryptocurrency needs and helps in maintaining a smooth-running Crypto.com log in account.
    crypto com sign in

    ReplyDelete
  45. How To Redeem a PayPal Gift Card
    PayPal's computerized installments framework permits clients overall to send and get cash and make buys wherever PayPal is acknowledged, yet there is a great deal of disarray about PayPal gift vouchers.
    Figuring out how to recover a PayPal gift voucher isn't so clear in light of the fact that PayPal gift vouchers don't exist, basically not in the manner in which we ordinarily consider gift vouchers, e.g., Amazon gift vouchers.
    In this aide, we'll tell you the best way to move acknowledged prepaid gift vouchers to your PayPal account, so you can utilize them toward various buys. You'll likewise figure out how to utilize gift vouchers on the web and how to recover present cards purchased from PayPal. The best part is that you'll figure out how Mode Mobile's items can assist you with getting unconditional gift vouchers, cash, and other helpful compensations with no difficulty!
    A walkthrough to buy and redeem your card

    ReplyDelete
  46. Huobi exchange used to list some new commemoratives which are included on the Huobi Prime.This virtual investment management service makes it easy for you to manage your finances and gives you approachable solutions developed specifically.

    huobi exchange |
    wealthsimple login

    ReplyDelete
  47. Welcome to Aim Packers and Movers Gurgaon! We are one of the leading Packers and Movers in Gurgaon, which have stepped forward to help the corporate and residents of Gurgaon by resolving their relocation issues in and out of the region.

    Packers and Movers in navi mumbai

    Packers and Movers in mumbai

    Packers and Movers in pune

    Packers and Movers in Delhi

    Packers and Movers in gurgaon

    Packers and Movers in chennai

    Packers and Movers in ahmedabad

    ReplyDelete
  48. Get your Ethereum Wallet ready with the help of the quick MetaMask to sign up procedure. The fastest way to set up a new
    MetaMask login account is as follow.

    ReplyDelete
  49. As long as you have your seed phrase or the private key, you can access your MetaMask account on any device. But, in the absence of a private key, this task could not be completed even if you do remember your MetaMask login password. So, before you initiate this process, make sure you have access to the secret recovery phrase and then go ahead with applying the steps listed right here in this post

    ReplyDelete
  50. Phantom Wallet is a popular Solana blockchain wallet and you can get started with this wallet by setting up your profile with the help of the quick steps that are given in the next section.

    ReplyDelete

  51. Some cryptocurrencies, like SpookySwap, can only be purchased with another cryptocurrency on decentralized exchanges. To buy SpookySwap, you’ll need to first purchase Ethereum (ETH) and then use ETH to buy SpookySwap. Spookyswap | Yoroi Wallet | Cex.io Login | Binance Wallet | Binance Wallet

    ReplyDelete

  52. Phantom is a mobile and web crypto wallet that has been specially developed to manage SOL tokens. People can easily set up and access this wallet to send, receive and withdraw SOL tokens. Phantom Wallet | With a Trezor wallet by your side, you can easily move crypto in and out of it. In case you believe that some crypto funds need to be moved out of your wallet, then what you can do is follow the easy set of instructions that I am going to list in this article. Trezor Wallet

    ReplyDelete
  53. Timely and safe delivery is of prime importance when moving within the city outside the city and across the world. Our background verified Packers and Movers in navi mumbai are expertize in packing your articles separately using air pocket wraps, bubble wraps, corrugated boxes, waterproof plastic boxes, cellophane sheets and also securing them with locks and seals to ensure a tamper proof and safe delivery. You can find best quotes from expert Packers & Movers solution providers at Aim Packers and Movers

    ReplyDelete


  54. MetaMask Wallet is a one-of-a-kind cryptocurrency wallet platform on the market. It is mainly a software-type wallet that works simultaneously as a web browser extension and application on Android and iOS.
    metamask wallet |
    metamask extension

    ReplyDelete

Do the right thing.