The following text was originally posted as a
comment to
David Schawel's Economic Musings blog on April 19th, but it seems relevant to bring it back given
the freebase scenario making the rounds. My official position is that it's going to be an adverse reality unless we stop hating capital. It's a little off-the-cuff so don't get caught up in precision and just try to to suck up the main point, which is,
without new capital, the banks are decimating the private sector in order to fund the deficit (aka support the government) AKA NO BUENO
From "
How Spain pays the piper",
Given
that we are starting with a capital-constrained banking system (even
before write-downs or 2013 EBA recommendations), we know this, holding
capital levels stable, any government deficit must be matched by foreign
capital or by reduced lending to the private sector to maintain
leverage ratios stable--of course, due to 0%-RW on SPGBs, the EUR amt
need not match centavo for centavo. Now, retained earnings (new capital)
are not zero, so banks can either maintain their balance sheet size
and increase their capital ratio (delever), or increase balance sheet
size (fund the deficit) and maintain their capital ratio, or--most
likely--something in between, where purchases of new sovereign bonds
against increases in capital and levered via LTRO produce large amounts
of carry.
This gives us the illusion that banks may very well be able to earn
their way out of this mess (see also: LTRO), however, this all changes
if we change the risk weight on SPGBs to something other than its
current level of zero. Which is were we ask ourselves: In a country
where almost 3/4 of private household wealth (ex expected benefits from
government pensions, etc) is held as housing equity which has been
borrowed against, what happens to the sovereign if that # is cut in
half? After all, the sovereign's creditworthiness is just the aggregate
of the households. Its credit backed by its ability to tax and/or
confiscate private wealth to pay back creditors. If the households are,
collectively, broke, then what is left for the government to take? Which
is where I--finally--get to my point. If the government represents the
collective households and the collective households are overburdened,
then how will they be able to back their sovereign's increasing promises
as the banks decimate the private sector through loan attrition? Or,
in simpler terms, Is there any difference between
extending-and-pretending with the households' mortgages and
extending-and-pretending with the sovereign's obligations?
As we continue on our march to binary outcomes, I believe it becomes
important to ask ourselves, why do we hate capital so much? What is so
wrong about recapitalizing the banks and arresting this self-feedback
loop? Is it about crystallizing losses by raising equity at prices below
book? If so, why the big deal? If equity were really so under-priced,
current shareholders would surely rush to a private offering before
letting outsiders dilute them, no?
As a final comment, I think there is a 4th possible solution: Capital injections from the core banks and sovereigns.
Maybe
this should actually be 3c, but given that we know there is no way
except for "more capital" to resolve this and whether it be through
debt-to-equity swaps or lower than normal real rates, Core private
savings will ultimately pay for this. It might be nice to skip the whole
near-financial-meltdown part that ends in core households
recapitalizing their own banks after the D2E swaps and just get it over
with so 25% of the worlds 12th largest economy could, you know, get back
to work.
Morally Bankrupt blog I remember the first time I'm here as a guest but the second time I'm visiting here as a Professional SEO Services USA. According to the supplementary analysis people besides hate their capital infinitely serious.
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