Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Light Vehicle Sales and the NFP Report

I'm really dreading ADP/NFP week. It's my least-favorite week of the month. This month, I propose we all stop getting our collective panties in a bunch over a meaningless data-point that is subject to huge revisions and instead use a little common-sense and keep it simple.

You know what people are going to do when they get a job? Buy a car. Why do I think so? Because financing rates are low, deals are good, the fleet is old, and the sales have been depressed for three years. Don't believe me?

Red: SAAR Light-vehicle sales divided by the total population estimate
Green: Total non-farm private payroll divided by the total population estimate

Blue: SAAR Light-vehicle sales divided by the total population estimate (inverted scale)
Red: Civilian Unemployment Rate


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